This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

A fierce winning streakU.S. stocks rose Tuesday to hit fresh winning streaks, their longest in three years. But Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 ticked down 0.1% despite rising confidence among large Japanese manufacturers, according to a Reuters Tankan survey. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.2% a day after the country’s central bank raised rates by 25 basis points.

Microsoft closes at a highMicrosoft shares climbed 1.12% to hit $360.53, a record high. It’s the eighth consecutive day in which the technology giant’s shares rose, a streak unseen since January 2021. Investors cheered Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s surprise appearance at OpenAI’s event, where he encouraged developers to build with Microsoft’s Azure cloud infrastructure.

‘Absolutely booming’ Chinese sectorChina’s economy hasn’t recovered from its pandemic blues. But in the sectors of “electric vehicles and everything around sustainability and renewable power technology,” China is “absolutely booming,” Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters told CNBC. Relatedly, China’s truck industry is increasingly using vehicles with assisted-driving technology, a critical step toward monetizing the nascent business.

Peak, not pause?The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England all paused interest rate hikes in recent weeks. This breather comes after dramatic hikes over the last 18 months as central banks grappled with unruly inflation. Some market watchers, in fact, think this lull in hikes isn’t so much a pause but the peak in rates — and are turning their attention to when central banks will start cutting.

[PRO] Buy BYDOver the past 18 months, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has sold more than half its stake in Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD, according to stock filings. Despite that, analysts still think BYD’s a stock worth buying — and some even raised their price targets for the firm.

Last month’s sudden surge in Treasury yields and oil prices — both of which tend to suppress investors’ appetite for stocks — looks to be ending. No, scratch that — the increases aren’t just ending, they’re ebbing.  

Look at oil: Contracts for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures fell around $3. WTI’s now at $77.01 a barrel while Brent’s $81.44, their lowest since July. That’s almost $10 per barrel less compared with a month ago, when prices jumped on fears triggered by the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell around 10 basis points to 4.569% and the 2-year yield slipped 3 basis points to 4.915%. As Treasury yields serve as the benchmark for interest rates on loans and cash investments, sinking yields generally benefit rate-sensitive companies more. In other words: the Magnificent Seven Big Tech. Amazon led the pack, shooting up 2.13% yesterday.

That explains why the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.9%, more than the S&P 500’s 0.28% gain and the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 0.17% increase. Still, that’s not downplaying the movements. The S&P and Dow are enjoying their seventh consecutive session of gains, while the Nasdaq’s basking in its eighth.

If the U.S. Federal Reserve does indeed steer the economy to a soft landing, in which inflation is contained below 2% without the economy contracting, then there could be a further rally in stocks, said HSBC. Within periods of soft landings, the S&P has jumped, on average, 22% in the space between a pause and six months after rate cuts begin, noted HSBC’s global equity strategist Alastair Pinder.

And that immaculate disinflation isn’t just a dream. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC, “Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path … that we got inflation down without a recession.”

Both the economy and markets have truly acted in strange, unprecedented ways ever since the pandemic. From one of the worst years for stocks and bonds in 2022, to a widely heralded bull rally in the S&P — and then a correction — in 2023. And I haven’t even started on the U.S. labor market and inflation numbers. Strange may be new and unsettling, but it isn’t necessarily bad.

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Spooky OctoberMajor U.S. indexes inched up Tuesday, but ended October in the red — giving them a three-month losing streak. Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei jumping around 2.2% a day after the Bank of Japan relaxed its yield curve control policy. South Korea’s Kospi climbed about 1% as the country’s October exports rose 5.1% year on year, its first rise in 13 months.

Watch Janet alongside JeromeThere’s virtually zero chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the conclusion of its meeting later today. But Chair Jerome Powell’s comments may still have the force to move markets. And market watchers might want to pay more attention to the U.S. Treasury Department’s announcement of the size, and the duration mix, of its upcoming Treasury auction.

China’s high-level meetingsChina concluded a high-level financial meeting Tuesday, where the country signaled support for property developers and resolving local government debt problems. The twice-a-decade financial conference tends to sketch out long-term policy. Separately, U.S. President Joe Biden will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in the U.S., announced the White House.

Next year will be betterAMD reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat expectations. But the chipmaker’s fourth-quarter sales forecast came in at $6.1 billion, below the $6.37 billion analysts were looking for. Nonetheless, AMD thinks 2024 will prove a better year for its artificial intelligence chip business — the firm’s one of the few chipmakers capable of manufacturing the high-end chips that generative AI relies on.

[PRO] A 117-year-old AI companyThere’s an old technology company that was founded in 1906, and which has become a household name. But traders should “rethink” their preconceptions of it, according to one investor. The 117-year-old company is “becoming an AI company. They’re becoming a cloud company,” he said.

The last day of October was sweet for markets, but it was more trick than treat for the rest of the month.

Major indexes managed to finish the day in the green. The S&P 500 rose 0.65% — pulling it out of correction territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.38% and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.48% higher.

But this final sprint couldn’t help stocks outrun a dismal October, which was haunted by the 10-year Treasury yield breaching the 5% level for the first time in 16 years. On a monthly basis, the S&P fell 2.2%, the Dow 1.4% and the Nasdaq 2.8%. All three indexes declined for three consecutive months — the first time for the S&P and Dow since March 2020.

In fact, this is just the ninth time since 1928 the S&P has fallen consecutively from August to October, according to Bespoke Investment Group. But history presents a silver lining: The last two times the S&P fell during those months, it rallied 3.42% and 5.99% in the following November, the group said.

The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, expected Wednesday, might give stocks another boost. “If the Fed comes out and says they’re probably done for the year, gives hints that they’re feeling more dovish, that could be one thing that really helps,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird.

And stocks certainly do need help. Even the Magnificent Seven stocks that led most — if not all — the gains in the S&P this year have been struggling in October. Tesla, most significantly, is down 20.5% for the month, while Nvidia has dropped more than 7% and Alphabet’s 5.8% lower. Only Microsoft and Amazon have advanced for the month.

But nothing lasts forever: Even cold November rain may wash away the bitter taste of the past three months.

For the first time in nearly two decades running JPMorgan Chase, CEO Jamie Dimon will voluntarily sell stock in the bank.

The disclosure, in a securities filing Friday, detailed next year’s planned sales — pressuring JPMorgan (JPM) shares and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and highlighting why tracking trades made by executives involving the companies they lead should be an important part of every investor’s homework.

Dimon is setting up the trades through a predetermined plan that executives at publicly traded companies use to protect against insider trading accusations. It will mark the first time that the 67-year-old CEO has offloaded shares of JPMorgan for non-technical reasons, such as exercising options.  

The planned sales – amounting to roughly 12% of the JPMorgan stock owned by Dimon and his family – are being done for tax planning and personal wealth diversification reasons, the bank said. Both are common reasons for executives to sell stock in their firms. The bank also said Dimon continues to believe JPMorgan’s prospects are “very strong,” and his planned trades are not related in any way to succession. Such sales are often seen when CEOs get close to retirement.

As you can see, making sense of insider transactions can sometimes be a tall task.

When they buy, it’s generally seen as an encouraging sign by Wall Street — and there is, perhaps, no better example of this than another move by Dimon in 2016, when he purchased JPMorgan stock.

Fears of a weakening global economy sent stocks into a tailspin in early 2016, driving shares of JPMorgan down nearly 20% and the S&P 500 down more than 10% at their lows.

But that weakness didn’t last long.

The trajectory of the market changed just six weeks into the new year. That’s when Dimon disclosed — after the closing bell on Feb. 11, 2016 — that he bought 500,000 shares of the bank, worth about $26 million at the time.

Dimon’s stock purchase, intended to show confidence in the financial sector, has become legendary on Wall Street. It ultimately coincided with — or perhaps was the reason for — the closing lows for not only shares of JPMorgan in 2016 but also the S&P 500 overall.

Jim Cramer has since dubbed Feb. 11, 2016: “The Jamie Dimon Bottom.” JPMorgan finished up 30% that year, while the S&P 500 ended more than 9% higher — both huge turnarounds.

While executive stock sales — such as Dimon’s planned transactions next year — are not universally red flags, they can get complicated.

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Earnings excitementMajor U.S. indexes rallied Monday as investors grew optimistic over strong earnings reports thus far. Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Tuesday as South Korean indexes led gains in the region. Meanwhile, New Zealand reported two-year low inflation readings: Consumer prices in the third quarter rose 5.6% year on year, less than the second quarter’s 6% increase.

China’s renewed reboundChina’s economic growth will return next year, Mark Makepeace, former head of benchmark giant FTSE Russell told CNBC. “In the short term, China does have some issues … but the potential is there,” Makepeace said. One such issue: The country’s property sector is still struggling. If Country Garden fails to make a $15 million coupon payment today, all of its offshore debt could be in default.

Big Tech might win from the HouseIf Republican Rep. Jim Jordan is elected speaker of the U.S. House, technology giants like Google, Apple and Amazon stand to benefit because Jordan’s against using antitrust regulations to break up companies. He’s “aimed most of his ire at the Biden administration’s pressure on companies — not the companies themselves,” said Adam Kovacevich, CEO of lobbying group Chamber of Progress.

Biden to visit IsraelU.S. President Joe Biden will travel to Israel on Wednesday “to stand in solidarity in the face of Hamas’s brutal terrorist attack,” he said on social media platform X. While there, Biden will try to mitigate an expansion of the war between Israel and Hamas, and work to establish the safe passage of critical humanitarian aid to Gaza, said Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

[PRO] Rising oil prices could boost non-energy stocksExogenous shocks, like supply cuts and the Israel-Hamas war, have forced oil prices upward. That’s good news for energy stocks — but these non-energy, European stocks also stand to benefit when oil and gas prices rise, according to Bank of America.

Despite U.S. Treasury yields rising and the Israel-Hamas war becoming increasingly volatile, major indexes in the U.S. closed in the green. Investors’ excitement over third-quarter earnings season, it appears, powered Monday’s rally in equities.

Companies that have already reported have mostly beat Wall Street estimates, giving their shares a boost. Charles Schwab climbed 4.66% after beating earnings expectations, and on Friday, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo rose following their earnings reports.

Investors are hoping this positive start will follow through for the week, during which 53 companies in the S&P 500 — around 11% of its constituents — will report results. (In fact, RBC Capital Markets’ so optimistic about earnings that it’s raised its forecast for 2023 and 2024 earnings per share. The bank’s new numbers “imply that the S&P 500 could surpass 4,700 by year-end 2023,” said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. rates strategy at RBC.)

If stocks continue rising at the brisk pace they did Monday, that’s certainly a possibility. The S&P 500 added 1.06% to close at 4,373 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.93% for its best day in a month, putting it less than 5% from its 52-week high.

“I really see a relief rally going on,” said Lisa Erickson, senior vice president at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “Sentiment has just turned relatively more positive.”

Indeed, even the small-cap Russell 2000 rallied 1.59%. “This market is starting to broaden out a little bit,” Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, told CNBC.

The Russell 2000 has lagged behind major indexes this year because gains were concentrated in the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks. But “if the economy is going to re-accelerate, which it is doing, and if profits growth is going to re-accelerate, which it is doing, then small caps should lead the way,” added Bernstein. “That’s what history says.”

With the Russell 2000’s best session since July, it’s no wonder investors are growing excited.

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Stocks sold offU.S. stocks experienced a sell-off and all major indexes closed in the red. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields rose for the second consecutive day. Asia-Pacific markets followed Wall Street lower Thursday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.29%, leading losses in the region, as trade data for the country came in worse than expected. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.64% after eight straight days of gains.

China’s trade isn’t picking upChina’s trade activity fell again in August, though not as badly as feared. In U.S. dollar terms, exports fell by 8.8% from a year ago, compared with the 9.2% forecast. Imports dropped 7.3%, less than the 9% decline expected. However, that means imports have fallen every month this year, while exports have dropped monthly since April.

An Apple-Arm agreementApple has signed an agreement with Arm that “extends beyond 2040,” Arm said in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing. This suggests Apple has secured access to the Arm architecture, an instruction set that outlines how a chip’s central processor works, for the foreseeable future. That can only boost the excitement around Arm’s upcoming IPO that values it as high as $52 billion.

Inside the Magic Kingdom’s chaosWhat did a private bathroom, Oogie Boogie and a hippo have to do with the behind-the-scenes chaos between Bob Iger and Bob Chapek at Disney? CNBC’s Alex Sherman spoke with more than 25 people who worked closely with Iger and Chapek between 2020 and 2022, uncovering the inside story of a CEO succession plan gone awry.

[PRO] Taking bites out of AppleChina reportedly banned government officials from using Apple’s iPhone and other foreign-branded devices for work. The European Commission also designated Apple as a “gatekeeper” under its new act. Apple shares fell 3.6% yesterday — could the company face even more headwinds ahead? Listen to what the pros are saying about those developments.

The roaring flames of 9.1% inflation in June last year have been quenched, but the last few glowing embers are proving hard to extinguish completely.

Oil prices are still rising from yesterday’s news of supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, adding to inflationary pressures.

And today we found out the services and manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy have been paying higher prices for inputs in August, according to the prices component of the ISM Services index and its manufacturing counterpart. Moreover, the report showed the services sector growing at a faster-than-expected clip for its eighth consecutive month of expansion and its highest reading since February.

For recession worriers, that sounds like good news. But markets have turned their focus from recession to stubborn inflation and the threat of higher interest rates.

Markets are “seemingly adopting a ‘bad news is good news’ view, rallying on weak growth data, and selling off on strong data — amid fears that too strong data will increase the risk of an additional rate hike,” Goldman Sachs’ Chris Hussey wrote in a Wednesday note.

Indeed, as Treasury yields jumped — the 2-year yield breached the 5% level once again — and bets of a rate hike in November increased, stocks were pressured. Rate-sensitive technology stocks were especially affected, with Nvidia and Apple losing more than 3% each. (Apple’s shares were also affected by a Wall Street Journal report that Chinese government agencies have banned staff from using iPhones at work.)

That caused the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite to sink 1.06% for its third straight day of losses. The S&P 500 retreated 0.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.57%.

A roaring blaze is dangerous. But more often than not, it’s the embers smoldering in the underbush that cause the most damage — and ignite a wildfire again.

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Stocks under pressureU.S. stocks fell Thursday, their third losing day in a row. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.284%, the highest since October. Asia-Pacific markets retreated Friday as investors digested more bad news about China’s real estate sector. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost around 1.4% while the mainland Shanghai Composite inched down 0.3%. Separately, Japan’s headline inflation in July held steady at 3.3%.

China’s property troublesEvergrande Group, a heavily indebted Chinese property developer, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court Thursday. The statute protects non-U.S. companies that are undergoing restructuring from creditors. It’s another stark sign of how China’s property sector hasn’t improved since its slump in 2020, intensifying calls for policymakers to step in.

Bright spots in Chinese economyChina’s economy may be struggling, but there are bright spots in the consumer economy, according to earnings reports from big Chinese companies. JD.com saw electric and home appliance revenues rise 11.3%, Tencent saw 150% year-on-year growth in gross merchandise value and Alibaba’s Tmall sales increased 21% year over year to 30.16 billion yuan ($4.1 billion).

Bitcoin plungesBitcoin fell sharply to $26,308, its lowest level in almost two months, after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting were released. The Fed’s warning that sustained inflation could lead to more rate hikes — and a higher chance of an engineered recession — probably triggered a sell-off in risky assets like cryptocurrency, said Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs.

[PRO] Headwinds in AugustThe S&P 500 is down 4% so far this month, putting it on pace for its worst one-month decline since December. There are a few factors for the slump: zero-day options, weak technicals and a weak Chinese economy. CNBC Pro’s Fred Imbert breaks down each headwind and gives suggestions on how investors can protect their portfolios.

Rising U.S. Treasury yields are straining stocks. Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting triggered the 10-year yield to rise more than 2 basis points to hit its highest level in almost a year. But at 4.282%, it’s still lower than the benchmark interest rate of 5.25% to 5.5%.

That’s not even taking into account the last rate hike that the Fed had projected for the year, which would take rates to a range of 5.5% to 5.75%. Investors had hoped — and bet — that the Fed would stop hiking after its meeting in July.

Those bets are slowly unwinding. There’s a 33.2% chance that the Fed will increase rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.  Those odds were only 27.8% a week ago.

And with rates possibly going higher than that if inflation resurges — as the Fed warned in its minutes — yields could climb further still.

Investors didn’t like the sound of that. The S&P 500 lost 0.77%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.84% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.17%. All three indexes closed below their 50-day moving average — the first time for the Dow since June.

Trading was brisk, too, suggesting investors sold off stocks because they feared more losses. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, a fund that tracks the S&P index, traded 95.3 million shares, above its 30-day moving volume of 72.4 million

Indeed, investor sentiment nosedived this week, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investor weekly survey. Just 35.9% of investors are bullish about the next six months, down from 44.7% last week and 49% two weeks ago. The decline snapped a 10-week streak when bullishness had exceeded the historical average of 37.5%, the AAII said.

It’d be a stretch of the imagination, however, to say that a bear market is back. All indexes are still above their 200-day moving average. The S&P is around 9.31% off its record high and has rallied about 14% this year. It’s important to keep in mind that August has historically been a slow, and bad month for stocks. But August is just one month.

— CNBC’s Scott Schnipper contributed to this report