India is poised to become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075, leapfrogging not just Japan and Germany, but the U.S. too, says Goldman Sachs.

Currently, India is the world’s fifth-largest economy, behind Germany, Japan, China and the U.S.

On top of a burgeoning population, driving the forecast is the country’s progress in innovation and technology, higher capital investment and rising worker productivity, the investment bank wrote in a recent report.

“Over the next two decades, the dependency ratio of India will be one of the lowest among regional economies,” said Goldman Sachs Research’s India economist, Santanu Sengupta.

A country’s dependency ratio is measured by the number of dependents against the total working-age population. A low dependency ratio indicates that there are proportionally more working age adults who are able to support the youth and elderly.

Sengupta added that the key to drawing out the potential of India’s rapidly growing population is to boost the participation of its labor force. And Sengupta forecasts that India will have one of the lowest dependency ratios among large economies for the next 20 years.

“So that really is the window for India to get it right in terms of setting up manufacturing capacity, continuing to grow services, continuing the growth of infrastructure,” he said.

India’s government has placed a priority on infrastructure creation, especially in the setting up of roads and railways. The country’s recent budget aims to continue the 50-year interest free loan programs to state governments in order to spur investments in infrastructure.

Goldman Sachs believes that this is an appropriate time for the private sector to scale up on creating capacity in manufacturing and services in order to generate more jobs and absorb the large labor force.

Spearheading India’s economic trajectory is also its progress in technology and innovation, the investment bank said.

India’s technology industry revenue is expected to increase by $245 billion by the end of 2023, according to Nasscom, India’s non-governmental trade association. That growth will come from across the IT, business process management and software product streams, Nasscom’s report indicated.

Additionally, Goldman predicted capital investment will be another significant driver of India’s growth.

“India’s savings rate is likely to increase with falling dependency ratios, rising incomes, and deeper financial sector development, which is likely to make the pool of capital available to drive further investment,” Goldman’s report stated.

The Achilles heel to the bank’s projection is the labor force participation rate — and whether it increases at the rate which Goldman projects.

“The labor force participation rate in India has declined over the last 15 years,” the report noted, underlining that women’s participation rate in the labor force is “significantly lower” than men’s.

“A mere 20% of all working-age women in India are in employment,” the investment bank wrote in a separate report in June, citing that the low figure could be due to women being primarily engaged in piecework, which is not accounted for by the economic measures of formal employment.

Net exports have also been a drag on India’s growth, because India runs a current account deficit, Goldman said. The bank highlighted, however, that services exports have been cushioning current account balances.

India’s economy is driven by domestic demand, unlike many more export-dependent economies in the region, with up to 60% of its growth mainly attributed to domestic consumption and investments, according to Goldman’s report.

S&P Global and Morgan Stanley have also predicted that India is on course to become the third-largest economy by 2030.

India’s first-quarter GDP expanded 6.1% year-on-year, handily beating Reuters’ expectations of 5% growth. The country’s full-year growth is estimated to come in at 7.2%, compared with 9.1% growth in the 2021-2022 fiscal year.

Car-sharing service Turo filed its IPO prospectus in January 2022. A month earlier, Reddit said it submitted a draft registration for a public offering. Instacart’s confidential paperwork was filed in May of last year.

None of them have hit the market yet.

Despite a bloated pipeline of companies waiting to go public and a rebound in tech stocks that pushed the Nasdaq up 30% in the first half of 2023, the IPO drought continues. There hasn’t been a notable venture-backed tech initial public offering in the U.S. since December 2021, when software vendor HashiCorp debuted on the Nasdaq.

Across all industries, only 10 companies raised $100 million or more in U.S. initial share sales in the first six months of the year, according to FactSet. During the same stretch in 2021, there were 517 such transactions, highlighted by billion-dollar-plus IPOs from companies including dating site Bumble, online lender Affirm, and software developers UiPath and SentinelOne.

As the second half of 2023 gets underway, investors and bankers aren’t expecting much champagne popping for the rest of the year.

Many once high-flying companies are still hanging onto their old valuations, failing to reconcile with a new reality after a brutal 2022. Additionally, muted economic growth has led businesses and consumers to cut costs and delay software purchases, which is making it particularly difficult for companies to comfortably forecast the next couple of quarters. Wall Street likes predictability.

So if you’re waiting on a splashy debut from design software maker Canva, ticket site StubHub or data management company Databricks, be patient.

“There’s a disconnect between valuations in 2021 and valuations today, and that’s a hard pill to swallow,” said Lise Buyer, founder of IPO consultancy Class V Group in Portola Valley, California. “There will be incremental activity after a period of absolute radio silence but it isn’t like companies are racing to get out the door.”

The public markets tell an uneven story. This year’s rally has brought the Nasdaq to within 15% of its record from late 2021, while an index of cloud stocks is still off by roughly 50%.

Some signs of optimism popped up this month as Mediterranean restaurant chain Cava went public on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock more than doubled on its first day of trading, indicating high demand from retail investors. Buyer noted that institutions were also enthused about the deal.

Last Friday, Israeli beauty and tech company Oddity, which runs the Il Makiage and Spoiled Child brands, filed to go public on the Nasdaq.

That all comes after a big month for secondary offerings. According to data from Goldman Sachs, May was the busiest month for public stock sales since November 2021, driven by a jump in follow-on deals.

While investors are craving new names, they’re much more discerning when it comes to technology than they were at the tail end of the decade-long bull market.

Mega-cap stocks Apple and Nvidia have seen outsized gains this year and are back to trading near all-time highs, boosting the Nasdaq because of their hefty weightings in the index. But the advances are not evenly spread across the industry.

In particular, investors who bet on less mature businesses are still hurting. The companies that held the seven-biggest tech IPOs in the U.S. in 2021 have lost at least 40% of their value since their debut. Coinbase, which went public through a direct listing, is down more than 80%.

That year’s IPO class featured high-growth businesses with even higher cash burn, an equation that worked fine until recession concerns and rising interest rates pushed investors into assets better positioned to withstand an economic slowdown and increased capital costs.

Bankers and investors tell CNBC that optimism is picking up, but ongoing economic concerns and the valuation overhang from the pre-2022 era set the stage for a quiet second half for tech IPOs.

One added challenge is that fixed income alternatives are back. Following a lengthy stretch of near-zero interest rates, the Federal Reserve this year lifted its target rate to between 5% and 5.25%. Parking money in short-term Treasurys, certificates of deposit and high-yield savings offerings can now generate annual returns of 5% or more.

“Interest rates are not only about the cost of financing, but also getting investors to trade out of 5% risk-free returns,” said Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management. “You can make 15%-20% in the stock market but lose 15%-20%.”

Dollarhide, whose firm has invested in milestone tech offerings like Google and Facebook, says IPOs are important. They offer more opportunities for money managers, and they generate profits for the tech ecosystem that help fund the next generation of innovative companies.

But he understands why there’s skepticism about the window reopening. Perhaps the biggest recent bust in tech investing followed the boom in special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), which brought scores of less mature companies to the public market through reverse mergers.

Names like Opendoor, Clover Health, 23andMe and Desktop Metal have lost more than 80% of their value since hitting the market via SPAC.

“It seems the foul odor of failure from the 2021 SPAC craze has spoiled the appetite from investors seeking IPOs,” Dollarhide said. “I think that’s done some harm to the traditional IPO market.”

Private markets have felt the impact. Venture funding slowed dramatically last year from record levels and has stayed relatively suppressed, outside of the red-hot area of artificial intelligence. Companies have been forced to cut staff and close offices in order to preserve cash and right-size their business

Pre-IPO companies like Stripe, Canva and Klarna have taken huge hits to their valuations, either through internal measures or markdowns from outside investors.

Few have been hit as hard as Instacart, which has repeatedly slashed its valuation, from a peak of $39 billion to as low as $10 billion in late 2022. Last year, the company confidentially registered for an IPO, but still hasn’t filed publicly and doesn’t have immediate plans to do so.

Similarly, Reddit said in December 2021 that it had confidentially submitted a draft registration statement to go public. That was before the online ad market took a dive, with Facebook suffering through three straight quarters of declining revenue and Google’s ad sales also slipping.

Now Reddit is in the midst of a business model shift, moving its focus beyond ads and toward generating revenue from third-party developers for the use of its data. But that change sparked a protest this month across a wide swath of Reddit’s most popular communities, leaving the company with plenty to sort through before it can sell itself to the public.

A Reddit spokesperson declined to comment.

Turo was so close to an IPO that it went beyond a confidential filing and published its full S-1 registration statement in January 2022. When stocks sold off, the offering was indefinitely delayed. To avoid withdrawing its filing, the company has to continue updating its quarterly results.

Like Instacart, Turo operates in the sharing economy, a dark spot for investors last year. Airbnb, Uber and DoorDash have all bounced back in 2023, but they’ve also instituted significant job cuts. Turo has gone in the opposite direction, more than doubling its full-time head count to 868 at the end of March from 429 at the time of its original IPO filing in 2021, according to its latest filing. The company reportedly laid off about 30% of its staff in 2020, during the Covid pandemic.

Turo and Instacart could still go public by year-end if market conditions continue to improve, according to sources familiar with the companies who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

Byron Deeter, a cloud software investor at Bessemer Venture Partners, doesn’t expect any notable activity this year, and says the next crop of companies to debut will most likely wait until after showing their first-quarter results in 2024.

“The companies that were on file or were considering going out a little over a year ago, they’ve pulled, stopped updating, and overwhelmingly have no plans to refile this calendar year,” said Deeter, whose investments include Twilio and HashiCorp. “We’re 10 months from the real activity picking up,” Deeter said, adding that uncertainty around next year’s presidential election could lead to further delays.

In the absence of IPOs, startups have to consider the fate of their employees, many of whom have a large amount of their net worth tied up in their company’s equity, and have been waiting years for a chance to sell some of it.

Stripe addressed the issue in March, announcing that investors would buy $6.5 billion worth of employee shares. The move lowered the payment company’s valuation to about $50 billion from a high of $95 billion. Deeter said many late-stage companies are looking at similar transactions, which typically involve allowing employees to sell around 20% of their vested stock.

He said his inbox fills up daily with brokers trying to “schlep little blocks of shares” from employees at late-stage startups.

“The Stripe problem is real and the general liquidity problem is real,” Deeter said. “Employees are agitating for some path to liquidity. With the public market still pretty closed, they’re asking for alternatives.”

G Squared is one of the venture firms active in buying up employee equity. Larry Aschebrook, the firm’s founder, said about 60% of G Squared’s capital goes to secondary purchases, helping companies provide some level of liquidity to staffers.

Aschebrook said in an interview that transactions started to pick up in the second quarter of last year and continued to increase to the point where “now it’s overwhelming.” Companies and their employees have gotten more realistic about the market reset, so significant chunks of equity can now be purchased for 50% to 70% below valuations from 2021 financing rounds, he said.

Because of nondisclosure agreements, Aschebrook said he couldn’t name any private company shares he’s purchased of late, but he said his firm previously bought pre-IPO secondary stock in Pinterest, Coursera, Spotify and Airbnb.

“Right now there’s a significant need for that release of pressure,” Aschebrook said. “We’re assisting companies with elongating their private lifecycle and solving problems presented by staying private longer.”

WATCH: The private market index is trading up for the first time in two years

Goldman Sachs became the latest Wall Street bank to downgrade its growth forecast for China, as the world’s second-largest economy stutters and loses momentum after its coronavirus reopening.

The investment bank cut its full-year gross domestic product forecast for 2023 from 6% to 5.4%, noting further turbulence ahead for the economy. The recovery from its stringent Covid-19 lockdown measures continue to disappoint through soft economic data, as well as mounting pressure on its property sector.

While the firm sees further stimulus to come, it notes that the measures will not be enough to overcome the greater problems that it faces: weakened sentiment.

“With continued challenges from the property market, pervasive pessimism among consumers and private entrepreneurs, and only moderate policy easing to partially offset the strong growth headwinds, we mark down our 2023 real GDP forecast,” economists led by Chief China Economist Hui Shan said in research note Sunday.

The latest revision from Goldman Sachs follows the likes of UBS, Bank of America and JPMorgan who have all downgraded their China full-year GDP estimates.

Goldman Sachs’ economists added that there are a slew of macroeconomic issues facing the nation.

“With the reopening boost quickly fading, medium-term challenges such as demographics, the multi-year property downturn, local government implicit debt problems, and geopolitical tensions may start to become more important in China’s growth outlook,” they said.

It also sees further weakness in the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar due to rate differentials with the People’s Bank of China expected to ease its monetary policy further while the Federal Reserve is hinting at more rate hikes to come.

UBS also sees continued weakness in China’s economy ahead, particularly focusing on the second quarter of the year.

“Q2 [second quarter] sequential growth may slow to only 1-2% quarter-on-quarter saar [seasonally adjusted annual rate], weaker than our earlier expectation of 4.5%,” UBS Investment Bank’s Chief China economist Wang Tao said in a Friday note.

Wang noted that uncertainty in China’s property sector remains a central risk to its forecast and could bring its growth outlook even lower.

“Risks to our forecast is slightly biased towards the downside, mainly from uncertainties in property market and path of property policy support ahead, as well as weaker external demand,” she said.

The surge of deposits moving from smaller banks to big institutions including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo amid fears over the stability of regional lenders has slowed to a trickle in recent days, CNBC has learned.

Uncertainty caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month triggered outflows and plunging share prices at peers including First Republic and PacWest.

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The situation, which roiled markets globally and forced U.S. regulators to intervene to protect bank customers, began improving around March 16, according to people with knowledge of inflows at top institutions. That’s when 11 of the biggest American banks banded together to inject $30 billion into First Republic, essentially returning some of the deposits they’d gained recently.

“The people who panicked got out right away,” said the person. “If you haven’t made up your mind by now, you are probably staying where you are.”

The development gives regulators and bankers breathing room to address strains in the U.S. financial system that emerged after the collapse of SVB, the go-to bank for venture capital investors and their companies. Its implosion happened with dizzying speed this month, turbocharged by social media and the ease of online banking, in an event that’s likely to impact the financial world for years to come.

Within days of its March 10 seizure, another specialty lender Signature Bank was shuttered, and regulators tapped emergency powers to backstop all customers of the two banks. Ripples from this event reached around the world, and a week later Swiss regulators forced a long-rumored merger between UBS and Credit Suisse to help shore up confidence in European banks.

The dynamic has put big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs in the awkward position of playing multiple roles simultaneously in this crisis. Big banks are advising smaller ones while participating in steps to renew confidence in the system and prop up ailing lenders like First Republic, all while gaining billions of dollars in deposits and being in the position of potentially bidding on assets as they come up for sale.

The broad sweep of those money flows are apparent in Federal Reserve data released Friday, a delayed snapshot of deposits as of March 15. While large banks appeared to gain deposits at the expense of smaller ones, the filings don’t capture outflows from SVB because it was in the same big-bank category as the companies that gained its dollars.

Although inflows into one top institution have slowed to a “trickle,” the situation is fluid and could change if concerns about other banks arise, said one person, who declined to be identified speaking before the release of financial figures next month. JPMorgan will kick off bank earnings season on April 14.

At another large lender, this one based on the West Coast, inflows only slowed in recent days, according to another person with knowledge of the matter.

JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo representatives declined to comment for this article.

The moves mirror what one newer player has seen as well, according to Brex co-founder Henrique Dubugras. His startup, which caters to other VC-backed growth companies, has seen a surge of new deposits and accounts after the SVB collapse.

“Things have calmed down for sure,” Dubugras told CNBC in a phone interview. “There’s been a lot of ins and outs, but people are still putting money into the big banks.”

The post-SVB playbook, he said, is for startups to keep three to six months of cash at regional banks or new entrants like Brex, while parking the rest at one of the four biggest players. That approach combines the service and features of smaller lenders with the perceived safety of too-big-to-fail banks for the bulk of their money, he said.

“A lot of founders opened an account at a Big Four bank, moved a lot of money there, and now they’re remembering why they didn’t do that in the first place,” he said. The biggest banks haven’t historically catered to risky startups, which was the domain of specialty lenders like SVB.

Dubugras said that JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, was the largest single gainer of deposits among lenders this month, in part because VCs have flocked to the bank. That belief has been supported by anecdotal reports.

For now, attention has turned to First Republic, which has teetered in recent weeks and whose shares have lost 90% this month. The bank is known for its success in catering to wealthy customers on the East and West coasts.

Regulators and banks have already put together a remarkable series of measures to try to save the bank, mostly as a kind of firewall against another round of panic that would swallow more lenders and strain the financial system. Behind the scenes, regulators believe the deposit situation at First Republic has stabilized, Bloomberg reported Saturday.

First Republic has hired JPMorgan and Lazard as advisors to come up with a solution, which could involve finding more capital to remain independent or a sale to a more stable bank, said people with knowledge of the matter.

If those fail, there is the risk that regulators would have to seize the bank, similar to what happened to SVB and Signature, they said. A First Republic spokesman declined comment.

While the deposit flight from smaller banks has slowed, the past few weeks have exposed a glaring weakness in how some have managed their balance sheets. These companies were caught flat-footed as the Fed engaged in its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in decades, leaving them with unrealized losses on bond holdings. Bond prices fall as interest rates rise.

It’s likely other institutions will face upheaval in the coming weeks, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said during an interview on Wednesday.

“There could well be some smaller institutions that have similar issues in terms of their being caught without managing balance sheets as ably as others,” Fraser said. “We certainly hope there will be fewer rather than more.”

Goldman Sachs on Monday posted profit and revenue that exceeded analysts’ estimates as fixed income traders generated roughly $700 million more revenue than expected.

Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

Earnings per share: $7.73 vs. $6.58 expectedRevenue: $11.86 billion vs. $10.86 billion expected

Second-quarter profit fell 48% to $2.79 billion, or $7.73 a share, driven by industrywide declines in investment banking revenue. Still, the per share results were more than a dollar higher than the average analyst estimate reported by Refinitiv.

Revenue fell 23% to $11.86 billion, which was a full $1 billion more than analysts had expected, driven by a 55% surge in fixed income revenue.

The bank’s fixed income operations generated $3.61 billion in revenue, topping the $2.89 billion StreetAccount estimate. Goldman attributed the performance to “significantly higher” trading activity in interest rates, commodities and currencies. Equities revenue rose 11% to $2.86 billion, edging out the $2.68 billion StreetAccount estimate.

Goldman shares were up about 4% in premarket trading.

“We delivered solid results in the second quarter as clients turned to us for our expertise and execution in these challenging markets,” CEO David Solomon said in the release.

“Despite increased volatility and uncertainty, I remain confident in our ability to navigate the environment, dynamically manage our resources and drive long-term, accretive returns for shareholders,” he said.

Goldman tends to outperform other banks during periods of high volatility, as displayed by the firm’s strong fixed income results.

Similar to rivals including JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley who posted steep declines in second-quarter advisory revenue, Goldman said investment banking revenue dropped 41% to $2.14 billion, slightly higher than the $2.07 billion estimate. The firm blamed a sharp slowdown in equity and debt issuance in the quarter, one of the casualties of surging interest rates and declines across financial assets.

The bank said its deals backlog shrank compared with the first quarter, which could indicate that potential mergers and IPOs are being killed instead of being pushed back into future quarters.

Goldman also tends to benefit from rising asset prices through its various investment vehicles, and so broad declines in financial assets stung the firm in the quarter.

Asset management revenue fell 79% from a year earlier to $1.08 billion, edging out the $924.4 million estimate. The decline came from losses in publicly traded stocks and smaller gains in private equity holdings, the bank said.

“Macroeconomic concerns and the prolonged war in Ukraine continued to contribute to the volatility in global equity prices and wider credit spreads,” the bank noted.

Last week, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo also posted write-downs tied to declines in loan books or equity holdings.

Goldman’s consumer and wealth management revenue rose 25% to $2.18 billion, essentially matching analysts’ estimates, on rising management fees, credit card balances and deposits in its digital banking business.

Goldman shares have fallen 23% this year through Friday, worse than the 16% decline of the KBW Bank Index.

Last week, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo posted second-quarter profit declines as the banks set aside more funds for expected loan losses, while Morgan Stanley disappointed after a bigger-than-expected slowdown in investment banking. Citigroup topped expectations for revenue as it benefited from rising rates and strong trading results.