JAKARTA — Indonesia’s presidential hopefuls are pulling out all stops to win over voters on social media ahead of the Feb. 14 election.

In the country of 274 million, millennials and Gen Z voters make up 56.5% of the electorate — and campaigning on social media is heating up.

One platform in particular has emerged as a key battleground: TikTok.

“In 2019, it was the Instagram election. This time it’s the TikTok election,” says Aryo Seno Bagaskoro, a young spokesperson for the presidential campaign of Ganjar Pranowo, the former governor of Central Java.

With 125 million monthly active users, Indonesia is TikTok’s second biggest market, making the platform key for Indonesians trying to get news and updates about the election.

All three candidates have taken note and are churning out youth-oriented content on TikTok, with Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto dancing for the crowds, the former governor of Jakarta Anies Baswedan courting K-pop fans, and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo promoting penguin-related posts.

For Prabowo, the clear frontrunner who’s polling in the mid-40s, the messaging on TikTok fits into the wider “gemoy,” or cute, image of his presidential campaign.

The approach is markedly different from the macho image adopted by 72-year-old during his previous runs for the presidency in 2014 and 2019.

Rather than videos of him arriving at rallies on the back of stallions and rousing crowds with nationalist speeches, the most popular content on TikTok has portrayed him as having a sensitive — even vulnerable — side.

One of the most popular campaign posts on TikTok, with 49 million views, appeared to show Prabowo on the verge of tears after tough questioning in the second presidential debate. Many supporters of Prabowo, often young women, posted videos of themselves weeping in solidarity and alleging that Prabowo was a victim of bias.

Anies’ signature has been live broadcasts on TikTok dubbed locally as “Desak Anies,” or “Interrogate Anies.”

Polling in the mid-twenties, he is running neck-and-neck with Ganjar, and cultivating followers who send questions directly to him. Topics vary from his political program to advice on first dates.

Anies has found unexpected popularity among K-pop fans, mainly young women, belying his past associations with conservative Islam.

One of his supporters is a 22-year-old female student who posts on social media platform X about Anies and his campaign using Korean hangul captions. Much of the footage posted is taken from TikTok.

“He is the perfect fit for K-popification,” the owner of the account told CNBC, asking not to be named for fear of backlash.

“When he did live TikTok, the background is like the ones used by K-pop idols, maybe it was the curtain.”

The Anies campaign and its official supporter groups have taken note, occasionally sending her photos or videos they’d like her to promote.

The Ganjar campaign has gimmicks of its own too, such as “Top Gun”-style jackets and penguin symbols. But, according to his campaign team, they are most interested in videos of him interacting naturally with voters on the ground to showcase his humble roots.

“TikTok has unique characteristics. The algorithm values so much the authenticity and the originality of the videos,” says Karaniya Dharmasaputra, deputy for media channels on the Ganjar campaign team. “On TikTok we prefer an unpolished kind of video. Instagram, I think values more the polished content.”

Older politicians have had to embark on a crash course for TikTok campaigning.

Ganjar’s running mate, Mahfud MD has taken a lead role here, copying Anies’ signature live broadcasts. But introducing the 66-year-old minister and former chief justice of the constitutional court to the platform was tricky at first.

“When we first encouraged Pak Mahfud to do a livestream, it was a bit awkward to be very honest,” said Karaniya. “But he adapted very quickly.”

With the power of TikTok becoming clear, worries about its potential for misuse have also grown.

Misinformation has been a major issue on social media in past Indonesian elections, with outright lies spreading widely boosted by bots and “buzzers,” persons employed to churn out and promote propaganda by one group or another.

TikTok is now trying to limit not only the spread of misinformation, but also its role as a platform for political messages.

Paid political advertising or fundraising by politicians and political parties is not allowed on the social media platform. The company has also forged partnerships with government bodies, local NGOs, and newswire agency Agence-France Presse to combat misinformation.

“The short video format used on TikTok means most of the misinformation we see circulating on the platform consists of edited clips or footage shared out of context with a misleading or false caption,” said a representative for AFP.

Some examples include clips doctored to make them appear like crowds at a Prabowo rally — who were in fact his supporters — were cheering on his opponents, one claiming that Anies had converted to Christianity, and another of a leading journalist endorsing Prabowo.

According to Mafindo, one of the NGOs working with TikTok, between January and November last year, just 7.4% of the hoaxes they recorded and helped debunk were on TikTok.

“It’s on YouTube and Facebook that we found the most disinformation, but I think TikTok is catching up. Meaning a lot of hoaxes are now happening on TikTok,” said Septiaji Nugroho, chairperson of Mafindo.

Southeast Asian nations must adopt a cohesive position on Myanmar’s civil conflict and the ASEAN summit is a chance for leaders to “recalibrate,” Marty Natalegawa, Indonesia’s former foreign minister told CNBC. 

“I get the sense that ASEAN is at a loss for ideas … one can speak with eloquence about one individual member state’s wish to happen in Myanmar. But first and foremost, we need to have a common ASEAN position,” he told CNBC’s JP Ong on “Street Signs Asia.”

The 43rd Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit kicked off in the Indonesian capital of Jakarta on Tuesday, with Myanmar’s political crisis and the South China Sea disputes set to dominate discussions.

The 10-nation bloc is made up of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

This is the second year in a row that Myanmar was not invited to the regional meeting, following the military coup in February 2021 which saw its elected leader Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi ousted from power. 

Natalegawa said that while it is commendable the junta is excluded from the meetings, ASEAN member states have become “a little bit divided” over the past year in addressing Myanmar’s prolonged civil strife. 

The bloc has long operated on the principle of non-interference to ensure sovereignty of member states, but some countries urged the bloc to take bolder action.

Malaysia, for example, called for the imposition of “strong” measures against Myanmar’s ruling generals, according to a Reuters report last month.  

“At the moment, I’m reminded more about the divisions rather than the unity … this is not only a litmus test for ASEAN, but in my view is an existential threat to ASEAN,” Natalegawa added. 

In April 2021, Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing and the other nine ASEAN nations reached an agreement on the Five-Point Consensus, which called for the immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar, and dialogue among the parties involved.

Myanmar’s military administration, however, has not implemented the peace plan — despite agreeing to it two months after the democratic government was overthrown by the coup.

Another issue that could test the ability of ASEAN to act as a cohesive bloc is the dispute in the South China Sea. 

“Some ASEAN member states in dispute feel that they are not being provided a common ASEAN home, so as if they are left on their own devices to deal with this issue,” said Natalegawa.

Just last week, the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam rejected China’s latest South China Sea map, which denoted its claims to sovereignty.

The new map of its heavily contested U-shaped line cuts into the exclusive economic zones of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia.

“We must not allow countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei … [to] feel that their security needs are being unmet by ASEAN,” Natalegawa added. 

“Otherwise, we will have an a la carte regionalism. People will pick and choose the bit of regional cooperation they like.” 

Extreme weather conditions brought on by an approaching El Nino are fueling concerns that robusta beans in major coffee producers like Vietnam and Indonesia could be hit, resulting in soaring prices.

“The now widely-expected transition to El Nino conditions in Q323 has stoked fears of reduced output in Vietnam and Indonesia, both major coffee robusta producers,” Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI said in report dated May 24.

Robusta beans are known for their bitter characteristics and higher acidity, containing more caffeine than their premium and pricier arabica counterpart.

Brazil’s robusta crop has also been negatively impacted by drought as well, the report said.

That means the cost of instant coffee and espressos, which are often made with robusta beans, could come under pressure amid supply worries and a stronger than usual demand for robusta as consumers turn to cheaper substitutes for arabica.

El Nino is a weather phenomenon that typically brings hotter and drier than usual conditions to the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Climate scientists are predicting that this year’s El Nino could descend in the second half of 2023. 

Southeast Asia recently saw record-breaking heat in the middle of May.

“Across Southeast Asia, El Niño conditions are associated with below-average rainfall and higher temperatures, both of which depress coffee production,” the BMI report said.

Vietnam, Indonesia and Brazil are the largest producers of robusta, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

“We draw attention to heavy rains in Indonesia through Q123, which have had a negative impact on coffee bean quality, with the USDA forecasting a decline of about one fifth in coffee robusta production,” the analysts said.

Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities markets at Rabobank, is forecasting a 10% drop in production to 11.2 million bags of robusta in the coming crop harvest.

In 2016, El Nino-related water shortages in both Vietnam and Indonesia led to a global production decline of close to 10%, according to the research unit’s statistics.

Typically, in an El Nino year, it is “not uncommon” for Vietnam and Indonesia to “see a 20% decline in production” in robusta beans, Shawn Hackett, president of commodity brokerage firm Hackett Financial Advisors, told CNBC.

“That would mean a pretty severe contraction of robusta,” he said.

Robusta beans account for 40% of the world’s coffee production, and arabica beans make up the remaining 60% of global coffee production. Arabica beans are usually deemed to be of higher quality and command higher prices than robusta coffee.

However, global economic pressures are tipping demand toward robusta, the underdog of coffee beans.

Robusta prices are supported as coffee-product manufacturers and consumers substitute robusta beans for pricier arabica beans to save costs during inflationary times, the BMI report said.

Robusta coffee prices recently soared to a 15-year high of $2,783 per ton toward the end of May. They last traded at $2,608 per ton for July futures, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange.

Additionally, the premium that arabica beans have over robusta beans plunged to the lowest since 2019 due to soaring demand for the relatively cheaper coffee bean.

“Asia, generally speaking, has taken a liking to robusta more so than arabica, and as such the demand for robusta is growing at a much faster rate than demand for arabica,” said Hackett.

He cited the lower price point of robusta beans in Asia and the population’s palette for robusta-bean based drinks. 

Kopi, also known as Nanyang coffee, is a dark coffee beverage popular in Southeast Asia that’s traditionally brewed using robusta beans.

But Asia is not the only region that has taken an increased liking to robusta.

“While the reduction in washed arabica imports is partially due to lower availability … the shift to robusta shows that cheaper coffees are being heavily preferred by the European market,” said Natalia Gandolphi, analyst at HedgePoint Global Markets’ Intelligence.

Gandolphi said she expects a deficit of 4.16 million bags of robusta for the October 2023 to September 2024 period.