BEIJING – China’s economy is running into more challenges.

Credit data for July released Friday showed a slump in demand from businesses and households to borrow money for the future. Real estate problems persist with once-healthy developer Country Garden now on the brink of default. Consumer sentiment is weak.

“The weak July credit data suggest the downward spiral of the property sector continues, and worsening geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty,” Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, and a team said in a report Friday.

“In Japan during the 1990s, corporates might have paid down their debt to improve their chances of survival, but in today’s China, corporates and households are cutting their borrowing due to a lack of confidence (and trust),” the report said.

New local currency bank loans plunged by 89% in July from June to 345.9 billion yuan ($47.64 billion), less than half the 800 billion yuan analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll.

The July new yuan loan number was the lowest since late 2009, according to Reuters.

Those figures “should mark a low” since policy moves in June could have moved up some demand, Xiangrong Yu, chief China economist at Citi, and a team said in a note.

“Yet all the factors just cannot mask how weak credit demand is and how low risk appetite is,” the analysts said, noting expectations for rate cuts by the end of September. Without such cuts, they expect a greater risk that China misses its growth target of around 5% this year.

On Tuesday, China is set to release July economic data that’s expected to show no change from June in the pace of growth for industrial production and fixed asset investment, according to a Reuters poll.  

Retail sales are expected to rise 4.7% year-on-year pace in July, slightly faster than in June, the poll showed.

China’s massive real estate sector, where the majority of household wealth is parked, has reemerged as an area of concern that it could drag down the broader economy.

Developer Country Garden announced over the weekend it was suspending trading in at least 10 of its mainland-China traded yuan bonds.

Last week, the company missed coupon payments on two U.S. dollar-denominated bonds, according to Reuters.

Country Garden’s U.S. dollar bonds account for just under half of outstanding high-yield U.S. dollar-denominated bonds, according to Goldman Sachs analysis.

China U.S. dollar bonds that are of investment grade account for 43% of the total, the analysis showed.

“Given that the majority of [high-yield] developers have either defaulted or conducted bond exchanges, we believe rising stresses amongst the remaining [high yield] developers are unlikely to have broader impact on the offshore bond market,” the Goldman analysts said in a report Friday.

“We believe of greater concern is whether rising stresses will spillover to [investment grade] developers, most of whom are state owned enterprises [SOEs].”

State-owned companies have generally found it easier to obtain loans in China, where state-owned banks dominate. State-owned developers have also fared better in terms of recent sales than non-state-owned developers, data show.

However, China’s entire real estate sector still needs to contract by about 10 percentage points to reach a similar level of GDP contribution as Japan or South Korea, said Louis Lau, director of investments and emerging markets portfolio manager at Brandes Investment Partners.

He pointed out that while real estate has contributed to about 30% of GDP in China, that share is in the lower 20 percentage points in South Korea and Japan.

In 2020, Beijing began an earnest crackdown on developers’ high reliance on debt for growth. Authorities have eased their stance in recent months, with a notable shift in late July, but stopped short of large-scale stimulus.

“The more the government tries to help the real estate industry, the longer it takes for the industry to find a reasonable bottom,” Lau said.

He is underweight China, with selective investments in some consumer names and industries he expects will outperform.

India is poised to become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075, leapfrogging not just Japan and Germany, but the U.S. too, says Goldman Sachs.

Currently, India is the world’s fifth-largest economy, behind Germany, Japan, China and the U.S.

On top of a burgeoning population, driving the forecast is the country’s progress in innovation and technology, higher capital investment and rising worker productivity, the investment bank wrote in a recent report.

“Over the next two decades, the dependency ratio of India will be one of the lowest among regional economies,” said Goldman Sachs Research’s India economist, Santanu Sengupta.

A country’s dependency ratio is measured by the number of dependents against the total working-age population. A low dependency ratio indicates that there are proportionally more working age adults who are able to support the youth and elderly.

Sengupta added that the key to drawing out the potential of India’s rapidly growing population is to boost the participation of its labor force. And Sengupta forecasts that India will have one of the lowest dependency ratios among large economies for the next 20 years.

“So that really is the window for India to get it right in terms of setting up manufacturing capacity, continuing to grow services, continuing the growth of infrastructure,” he said.

India’s government has placed a priority on infrastructure creation, especially in the setting up of roads and railways. The country’s recent budget aims to continue the 50-year interest free loan programs to state governments in order to spur investments in infrastructure.

Goldman Sachs believes that this is an appropriate time for the private sector to scale up on creating capacity in manufacturing and services in order to generate more jobs and absorb the large labor force.

Spearheading India’s economic trajectory is also its progress in technology and innovation, the investment bank said.

India’s technology industry revenue is expected to increase by $245 billion by the end of 2023, according to Nasscom, India’s non-governmental trade association. That growth will come from across the IT, business process management and software product streams, Nasscom’s report indicated.

Additionally, Goldman predicted capital investment will be another significant driver of India’s growth.

“India’s savings rate is likely to increase with falling dependency ratios, rising incomes, and deeper financial sector development, which is likely to make the pool of capital available to drive further investment,” Goldman’s report stated.

The Achilles heel to the bank’s projection is the labor force participation rate — and whether it increases at the rate which Goldman projects.

“The labor force participation rate in India has declined over the last 15 years,” the report noted, underlining that women’s participation rate in the labor force is “significantly lower” than men’s.

“A mere 20% of all working-age women in India are in employment,” the investment bank wrote in a separate report in June, citing that the low figure could be due to women being primarily engaged in piecework, which is not accounted for by the economic measures of formal employment.

Net exports have also been a drag on India’s growth, because India runs a current account deficit, Goldman said. The bank highlighted, however, that services exports have been cushioning current account balances.

India’s economy is driven by domestic demand, unlike many more export-dependent economies in the region, with up to 60% of its growth mainly attributed to domestic consumption and investments, according to Goldman’s report.

S&P Global and Morgan Stanley have also predicted that India is on course to become the third-largest economy by 2030.

India’s first-quarter GDP expanded 6.1% year-on-year, handily beating Reuters’ expectations of 5% growth. The country’s full-year growth is estimated to come in at 7.2%, compared with 9.1% growth in the 2021-2022 fiscal year.

South Korea’s finance minister says the nation sees is at a “turning point” in economic relations with Japan.

Speaking to CNBC’s Chery Kang at the Asian Development Bank’s annual meeting in Incheon, South Korea’s finance minister and deputy prime minister Choo Kyung-ho praised Tokyo’s recent decision to restore South Korea to a list of preferred trade partners.

“My understanding is that Japan is processing this according to its legislative and administrative procedures,” Choo said, according to a CNBC translation. adding that South Korean officials hope the process will be completed “as soon as possible.”

“We believe that unnecessary regulations between the two countries will be entirely removed, and we believe that we’re now at a turning point for further cooperation between the two economies,” said Choo.

The thaw in Japan and Korea’s bilateral relations comes after South Korea announced its companies would compensate people who were forced to work during Japan’s 1910-1945 occupation of Korea – a bid by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol to improve the strained ties between the two nations.

Earlier this week, the two countries also held their first bilateral finance ministerial meeting in seven years, agreeing to resume regular talks “at an appropriate timing,” according to reports of Choo’s Japanese counterpart Shunichi Suzuki’s remarks after his meeting.

Choo said the recent talks with Suzuki will lead to further economic cooperation between the two U.S. allies.

“The recent bilateral summit has opened things up for improvement. So we can now anticipate cooperation between the two countries, in expansion of industrial and technology cooperation, as well as humanitarian exchange programs for youths,” he said. “We believe this will benefit both countries mutually, economy-wise, and contribute to the regional growth as well,” he said.

Choo added that the bilateral relationship will be “mutually beneficial” for high-tech industries, including semiconductors.

“Especially in sectors that we see both countries being placed in a ‘win-win’ situation, such as strengthening high-tech industrial sectors – we believe this is why Japan and Korea are both actively taking part in pushing for further cooperation through ministerial talks and dialogue between government agencies, which we plan to strengthen further,” he said.