The global economy does not need a “collapse” in order to bring inflation back to target and return to sustainable growth, according to Steven Wieting, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Citi Global Wealth.

Major economies have proven surprisingly resilient to sharp interest rate increases from central banks over the last two years. This has been particularly evident in the U.S., with recession thus far avoided and the labor market remaining robust.

Talk has now turned to rate cuts as inflation remains on a downward trajectory toward central banks’ targets, while growth has slowed.

Wieting told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday that he is optimistic the global economy does not need an “economic collapse” to rein in inflation.

“We had one massive shock — one pandemic, one collapse. We didn’t need two recessions to ultimately cure our inflation problem,” he said.

“It’s holding down parts of our economy now — manufacturing and trade declines are happening around the world — but these are likely to bottom within the year.”

U.S. headline inflation came in at an annual 3.4% year-on-year in December, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but down considerably from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

Investors will be closely watching Friday’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation figure, the Fed’s preferred metric, for further clues as to when the central bank will begin cutting rates.

Meanwhile, a preliminary estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is scheduled for Thursday, with the economy expected to have grown by 1.7%, its lowest rate since the 0.6% decline in the second quarter of 2022.

“This period of slower global growth and slowing employment growth in the United States we think can pass and lead to a healthier growth period if we take a look particularly at the next year and beyond, and that’s this year’s business for investors,” Wieting said.

He highlighted that while there is excess that needs to be worked out of the economy, this was not the result of a “true overheating” or prolonged “boom,” but instead of excess government fiscal stimulus related to the pandemic recovery that wasn’t going to be repeated.

“If you take a look at money supply in the United States, it declined 4% over the past year. Take a look at the 1970s, it was almost 10% growth for the entire decade, important prices surging 14% every single year — that’s … sustained inflation,” Wieting said.

“This story with just all of this government spending coming and going — upheaval in supply and demand, consumer spending going up or down 30% between goods and services, during the pandemic period — that’s not the environment we’re in any longer.”

Europe was gripped by punishing heat waves in the summer of 2022, with wildfires, droughts and deaths highlighting what many around the world already know: Weather extremes can have devastating, real-world consequences.  

When it comes to temperatures in warmer months, the direction of travel seems to be going one way.

The U.K.’s Met Office is projecting that summers in the country will be between 1 and 6 degrees Celsius warmer by 2070, and as much as 60% drier. It adds that global heat waves linked to climate change are likely to increase. Just this week it said last month was the U.K.’s hottest June on record.

The overall picture is challenging. In May 2023, the World Meteorological Organization said there’s “a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.”

The consequences of a warmer planet are going to be multifaceted, affecting billions of people — and the world of work is no exception.

A recent report from the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE) sketched out how employees could be affected as temperatures rise.

“Thermal comfort is very important in a workplace and if it is not achieved, morale, productivity, health and safety will all likely deteriorate,” the analysis said.

According to those involved in the report’s production, warmer working environments can create some very challenging scenarios indeed.

“There’s a whole range of things in addition to just people becoming fatigued and exhausted and not being able to focus on the industrial tasks they’re trying to undertake,” Tim Fox, its lead author, told CNBC.

That includes “increased potential for accidents, because people’s cognitive thinking isn’t as sharp as it would normally be.”

Issues relating to productivity also apply to equipment, facilities and buildings, Fox said. “Overheating ultimately results in economic productivity loss, [it] impacts on national and international economics.”   

Fox and his co-authors are not alone in highlighting the difficulties of a hotter world.

In 2019, the International Labour Organization published a report which contained some sobering details. 

“The economic losses due to heat stress at work were estimated at US$280 billion in 1995,” the U.N. agency said.

This, it added, “is projected to increase to US$2,400 billion in 2030, with the impact of heat stress being most pronounced in lower-middle- and low-income countries.”

The ILO’s report also highlighted which sectors would likely bear the brunt of rising average temperatures.

Those working in construction and agriculture, it said, were “expected to be the worst affected, accounting for 60 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively, of working hours lost to heat stress in 2030.”

Heat stress is a serious matter. The ILO describes it as referring to “heat received in excess of that which the body can tolerate without physiological impairment.”

Other outdoor jobs may be affected, too. In his interview with CNBC, Fox highlighted the potential challenges faced by workers in oil refineries, gas plants and chemical works.

All the above roles, he said, involve “quite a lot of external activity,” with workers also needing to wear personal protective equipment, or PPE, thanks to the nature of their job.

“This clothing can be quite cumbersome … and quite hot to wear, even under cold conditions,” Fox said.

That in turn makes employees “particularly at risk or vulnerable to … these sort of conditions.”

Factories are another area of concern. Fox noted that buildings of this type haven’t particularly been designed with heat ingress — especially extreme heat ingress — in mind.

“They’re full of equipment that’s generating a lot of heat, and it’s very difficult for factories, buildings, big warehouse buildings, to passively cool themselves,” he said.

Air conditioning is common in offices, but that’s not the case everywhere, he added.

Fox noted that office buildings in countries with temperate climates, like the U.K., “can get quite hot” because not a lot of air-conditioning had been installed.

The overall situation appears grave. For many, preparation and adaptation will be crucial.

The IMechE says this will involve “changes to the design of buildings, infrastructure and other physical assets and systems, both with regard to those that already exist and those that are yet to be built or manufactured, as well as the work, educational, leisure and other activities that humans undertake.”

In a statement issued alongside its report in April, the organization said it also wanted an urgent update to “guidance related to heat impacts on the workforce” so firms can come up with plans and enact changes in their working environments.

At the time, Laura Kent, the IMechE’s public affairs and policy advisor, referenced the challenges authorities face.

“We acknowledge that it would be difficult for the Health and Safety Executive to set a meaningful upper temperature limit due to variations between industries in both working conditions, required PPE and workload,” she said.

“However, HSE guidance needs to be updated to support sectors and industry in the development of appropriate strategies.”

The HSE did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment ahead of this story’s publication.

In other parts of the world, plans are being made to ban work when it’s too hot.

In May, for instance, Spain’s Minister of Labour and Social Economy, Yolanda Díaz, tweeted that carrying out “certain jobs during daylight hours” in extreme temperatures would be prohibited.

Speaking to reporters, Díaz said such prohibitions would take effect when AEMET, the State Meteorological Agency, issues red or orange weather alerts.

Citing Spain’s Labour Ministry, Reuters said the move would affect roles in sectors like agriculture and street cleaning. According to Reuters, in the summer of 2022 a street-sweeper in Madrid died from heatstroke.

Trade unions are also making their voice heard when it comes to working in extreme conditions.

Take Unite the Union, which has a presence in Britain and Ireland. It’s listed a range of advice provided by its health and safety representatives to both workers and employers.

Among other things, it stresses the importance of adequate ventilation for internal workspaces, the provision of cover for workers who are in direct sunlight, and stopping all work in extreme conditions.

Among a wide range of actions, Fox stressed the importance of design in creating safe and comfortable working environments in the face of hotter weather.

He said there needs to be a completely new approach to cooling that does not rely on the use of air conditioning, which has a significant environmental footprint.

“We need to explore … more traditional solutions of natural ventilation, use of shade, internal courtyards,” Fox said.

He noted that there’s “an awful lot” that can be done to prepare for the future. Raising awareness would be key. “In many cases, industries and workforces are just not aware that this challenge is coming, and are not preparing for it,” he said.

On top of that, identifying priorities in research and development and updating engineering methodologies and approaches would be needed.

Unless something is done, there will be, “in the coming years and decades, an increase in the economic impact of more extreme heat waves and just the general raising of the ambient seasonal temperature,” Fox warned.

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Investors like jobs growth.

The U.S. labor market is still hot. There were 253,000 new nonfarm jobs last month, handily beating Wall Street estimates for job growth of 180,000. Average hourly earnings unexpectedly rose by 0.5% — the biggest monthly gain in a year.U.S. markets jumped Friday as Apple shares popped and regional bank stocks recovered. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 1.1% — Adidas, with an 8.9% surge, was a big winner in the index.If the White House fails to raise the debt ceiling, there will be a “steep economic downturn” and “economic chaos will ensue,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned on Sunday. The U.S. might hit its debt ceiling as early as June 1.PRO During Berkshire’s meeting, Buffett shared his favorite stocks. One of them is a “better business than any we own,” Buffett said. Another is “one of the best-managed and important companies in the world” — yet Buffett decided to sell shares in it. Here’s why.

A strong jobs reading, a note from JPMorgan and an optimistic earnings report from Apple buoyed U.S. markets Friday.

The gains made by stocks were impressive — especially after the previous few days of renewed banking fears — so let’s start with them. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.65%, the S&P 500 rose 1.85% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.25%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq’s jump is straightforward: Apple shares leaped 4.7% after the company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue Thursday. Other Big Tech companies, like Microsoft and Amazon, rose alongside Apple.

Broader markets were boosted by April’s jobs report, which showed a higher-than-expected increase in jobs growth and an unemployment rate of 3.4% — a record low since 1969.

Markets’ reaction might seem confusing at first. A tight labor market implies the Federal Reserve might continue raising interest rates. Generally speaking, that’s bad for markets. Recall January’s jobs report: There were 517,000 new jobs in December, almost three times the forecast. Markets fell on the news.  

Yet this time, markets rallied, suggesting that the worry gripping traders is one of recession, not inflation. A strong jobs market increases the probability that the U.S. economy can tame inflation without contracting too severely.

Indeed, there are signs the U.S. economy has been slowing. At the end of April, we learned that GDP rose at an annualized 1.1% pace in the first quarter, about half of what analysts had estimated. The banking crisis — resurrected by First Republic’s failure — is spreading again, causing banks to lend less and ultimately slow growth even further.

There’s good news on that front, however. On Friday, banking titan JPMorgan Chase upgraded three regional bank stocks to “overweight,” saying that Western Alliance, Zions Bancorp and Comerica were all “substantially mispriced” — as I had argued in Friday’s edition of this newsletter.

Investors digested the note and pushed the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) up 6.3%. Individual bank stocks saw more drastic jumps: PacWest surged 81.7% and Western Alliance popped 49.2%.

But make no mistake: This isn’t a sign that banking fears have been put to rest definitively. If stocks can swing so drastically in one direction on the back of a note, they can do so in the other at the faintest whisper of trouble. What we’re seeing isn’t renewed confidence, but continued volatility.

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As if there weren’t already enough layoff fears in the tech industry, add ChatGPT to the list of things workers are worrying about, reflecting the advancement of this artificial intelligence-based chatbot trickling its way into the workplace.

So far this year, the tech industry already has cut 5% more jobs than it did in all of 2022, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The rate of layoffs is on track to pass the job loss numbers of 2001, the worst year for tech layoffs due to the dot-com bust.

As layoffs continue to mount, workers are not only scared of being laid off, they’re scared of being replaced all together. A recent Goldman Sachs report found 300 million jobs around the world stand to be impacted by AI and automation.

But ChatGPT and AI shouldn’t ignite fear among employees because these tools will help people and companies work more efficiently, according to Sultan Saidov, co-founder and president of Beamery, a global human capital management software-as-a-service company, which has its own GPT, or generative pretrained transformer, called TalentGPT.

“It’s already being estimated that 300 million jobs are going to be impacted by AI and automation,” Saidov said. “The question is: Does that mean that those people will change jobs or lose their jobs? I think, in many cases, it’s going to be changed rather than lose.”

ChatGPT is one type of GPT tool that uses learning models to generate human-like responses, and Saidov says GPT technology can help workers do more than just have conversations. Especially in the tech industry, specific jobs stand to be impacted more than others.

Saidov points to creatives in the tech industry, like designers, video game creators, photographers, and those who create digital images, as those whose jobs will likely not be completely eradicated. It will help these roles create more and do their jobs quicker, he said.

“If you look back to the industrial revolution, when you suddenly had automation in farming, did it mean fewer people were going to be doing certain jobs in farming?” Saidov said. “Definitely, because you’re not going to need as many people in that area, but it just means the same number of people are going to different jobs.”

Just like similar trends in history, creative jobs will be in demand after the widespread inclusion of generative AI and other AI tech in the workplace.

“With video game creators, if the number of games made globally doesn’t change year over year, you’ll probably need fewer game designers,” Saidov said. “But if you can create more as a company, then this technology will just increase the number of games you’ll be able to get made.”

Due to ChatGPT buzz, many software developers and engineers are apprehensive about their job security, causing some to seek new skills and learn how to engineer generative AI and add these skills to their resume.

“It’s unfair to say that GPT will completely eliminate jobs, like developers and engineers,” says Sameer Penakalapati, chief executive officer at Ceipal, an AI-driven talent acquisition platform.

But even though these jobs will still exist, their tasks and responsibilities could likely be diminished by GPT and generative AI.

There’s an important distinction to be made between GPT specifically and generative AI more broadly when it comes to the job market, according to Penakalapati. GPT is a mathematical or statistical model designed to learn patterns and provide outcomes. But other forms of generative AI can go further, reconstructing different outcomes based on patterns and learnings, and almost mirroring a human brain, he said.

As an example, Penakalapati says if you look at software developers, engineers, and testers, GPT can generate code in a matter of seconds, giving software users and customers exactly what they need without the back and forth of relaying needs, adaptations, and fixes to the development team. GPT can do the job of a coder or tester instantly, rather than the days or weeks it may take a human to generate the same thing, he said.

Generative AI can more broadly impact software engineers, and specifically devops (development and operations) engineers, Penakalapati said, from the development of code to deployment, conducting maintenance, and making updates in software development. In this broader set of tasks, generative AI can mimic what an engineer would do through the development cycle.

While development and engineering roles are quickly adapting to these tools in the workplace, Penakalapati said it’ll be impossible for the tools to totally replace humans. More likely we’ll see a decrease in the number of developers and engineers needed to create a piece of software.

“Whether it’s a piece of code you’re writing, whether you’re testing how users interact with your software, or whether you’re designing software and choosing certain colors from a color palette, you’ll always need somebody, a human, to help in the process,” Penakalapati said.

While GPT and AI will heavily impact more roles than others, the incorporation of these tools will impact every knowledge worker, commonly referred to as anyone who uses or handles information in their job, according to Michael Chui, a partner at the McKinsey Global Institute.

“These technologies enable the ability to create first drafts very quickly, of all kinds of different things, whether it’s writing, generating computer code, creating images, video, and music,” Chui said. “You can imagine almost any knowledge worker being able to benefit from this technology and certainly the technology provides speed with these types of capabilities.”

A recent study by OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, found that roughly 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of learning models in GPT tech, while roughly 19% of workers might see 50% of their tasks impacted.

Chui said workers today can’t remember a time when they didn’t have tools like Microsoft Excel or Microsoft Word, so, in some ways, we can predict that workers in the future won’t be able to imagine a world of work without AI and GPT tools.

“Even technologies that greatly increased productivity, in the past, didn’t necessarily lead to having fewer people doing work,” Chui said. “Bottom line is the world will always need more software.”

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Investor fears subside. Is it premature?

In the event of a bank rescue in the European Union, the EU will start by “absorbing equity stack, and then the AT1 and then the Tier 2 and then the rest,” Dominique Laboureix, chair of the EU’s Single Resolution Board, told CNBC in an exclusive interview.

Fears are subsiding and markets are rebounding. But it’d be too premature to celebrate — at least not until we find out how the economy’s doing from reports coming out soon.

Yesterday, all major indexes rose. The S&P 500 climbed 0.57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.43% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.73%. Investors continued flocking to technology stocks: Amazon rose 1.75%, Microsoft gained 1.26% and Netflix climbed 1.93%. “The Silicon Valley Bank fiasco was just the oxygen the tech bull needed to snap out of its funk and get back to work,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said.

How do we know investors are regaining confidence, other than inferring their sentiment from market moves? We look at the CBOE Volatility Index. Derived from the price of S&P 500 options, the volatility index measures the market’s expectations of how the S&P will move over the next 30 days. Hence, it serves as a proxy of investors’ fears. Currently, it’s around levels last seen at the start of March, before SVB collapsed.

In other words, markets seem to be pricing in the best of both words: “a recession that allows rates to be low and brings inflation down sharply, yet one that does not have a massively negative effect on corporate earnings,” Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays, wrote in a Thursday note.

That might be premature, as Rajadhyaksha suggests. Yesterday’s jobless claims number, while reporting an increase, is still below what the Federal Reserve would like to see for the labor market to slow substantially. We’ll get more granular data on the economy with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index later today, and the March jobs report next week.

For now, though, it’s undeniably nice to have a respite from the banking crisis.

— CNBC’s Dan Mangan contributed to this report.

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