A.P. Moller-Maersk, the second-largest global ocean carrier, is advising customers to prepare for a Red Sea crisis that could stretch well into the second half of this year.

“Unfortunately, we don’t see any change in the Red Sea happening anytime soon,” Charles van der Steene, regional president for Maersk North America, tells CNBC. “We’re advising them the longer transit routes could last through Q2 and potentially Q3. Customers will need to make sure they have the longer overall transit time built into their supply chain.”

On January 5, Maersk announced that it was suspending voyages through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden for the “foreseeable future” after the attack on the Maersk Hangzhou. After attacks on two U.S.-flagged Maersk vessels on January 24, the Maersk Detroit and Maersk Chesapeake, Maersk Line, Limited — a U.S. subsidiary of Maersk, which operates U.S.-flagged vessels independently — announced it would no longer traverse the Red Sea.

The global shipping and logistics company’s cautious view of the Red Sea safety conditions comes despite a U.S.-led multinational military operation in the region, Operation Prosperity Guardian. According to U.S. defense data, Houthi rebels have either attacked or threatened commercial vessels at least 46 times since November. Despite multiple strikes by the U.S. and allies against rebel targets, Houthis have warned that their attacks “will continue until the aggression against Gaza stops.”

The longer transits around the Cape of Good Hope are delaying the arrival of the empty vessels going back to Asia to pick up more U.S. imports. The delays are impacting the consistency of trade which can impact the supply chain. Van der Steene said he is urging U.S. companies to remain vigilant in their assessment of the Red Sea situation and be nimble in their supply chain logistics strategies.

Maersk was the largest ocean carrier for U.S. exports in 2023, based on customs data. Maersk Line, Limited’s U.S.-flagged vessels are enrolled in the Maritime Security Program and VISA (Voluntary Intermodal Sealift) with the U.S. government. It has the largest number of U.S. flagged vessels serving the country, in addition to its foreign-flagged fleet which transports ocean freight for U.S. companies.

“Our advice to our customers is specifically about building upon the uncertainty by being agile,” said van der Steene. “Customers need to have the ability to enter the North American market from different endpoints. Be it the West Coast, Gulf, or the East Coast. Our preparation of services very much depends on one-to-one work with our customers to identify what is their best alternative.”

Data from maritime advisory firm Sea-Intelligence shows that the average delay for late vessel arrivals has “deteriorated,” and as a result, vessel capacity has diminished, with impacts for U.S. East Coast-bound ocean freight from Asia going around the Horn of Cape Hope.

To keep the flow of trade moving, van der Steene told CNBC, Maersk has added about 6 percent of extra vessel capacity to its schedule, adding to operational costs. During its recent earnings call, Maersk executives flagged “high uncertainty” in its 2024 earnings outlook, citing the Red Sea disruptions and an oversupply of shipping vessels.

“U.S. businesses are concerned about delivery timing,” said van der Steene. “Merchant decisions are based on how reliable and how consistent their supply chain will be for the next three, six, 12, 24 months.”

In addition to delivery, van der Steen said shippers need to quantify the cost for their supply chain to the actual costs for their supply chain.

“Many of our customers factor a cost per unit cost for their supply chain into their budgeting, which basically is what they need to make their results work,” he said. “If that fundamentally shifts and changes, it could have a pretty significant effect on their overall costs.”

Ocean freight prices have jumped as a result of the longer voyage, costs not planned in shippers’ budgets, but recent data has suggested that inflation related to the Red Sea may be peaking already. Maersk officials said during its recent earnings call that the situation will not compare to the Covid supply chain inflation period due to the current overcapacity of vessels resulting from a post-Covid freight industry recession.

U.S. companies, van der Steene says, are faced with three supply chain headwinds: Red Sea diversions, East Coast port labor negotiations, and the Panama Canal drought. Shippers are looking for alternatives to cut both the time and rising cost of transit.

Ports in Mexico, the Pacific Northwest, and Los Angeles and Long Beach will be ports receiving some East Coast bound freight, van der Steene said. He described Mexico as a “significant” opportunity due to the expansion of nearshoring of products once manufactured in China. Recent trade data from the U.S. government showed that for the first time in decades, Mexico surpassed China as the nation’s largest trade partner.

For East Coast trade originating from the Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) region and going through the Panama Canal, Maersk recently announced it was expediting freight flow by moving those containers via rail instead of waiting to traverse the canal, which has drought restrictions reducing the number of vessels allowed for daily transit.

“The concern of Panama hasn’t gone away,” said van der Steene. “It has stabilized in the sense that people know what to expect, but we don’t know if this might potentially be recurring on an ongoing basis in the future. As a result, we’re actively looking to potentially have a better West Coast approach that would somehow mitigate the risk of the throughput being reduced on an ongoing basis.”

LONDON — Shares of Danish shipping giant Maersk slumped more than 17% in morning trade Thursday after it flagged “high uncertainty” in its 2024 earnings outlook amid Red Sea disruptions and an oversupply of shipping vessels.

The company also said that it would be suspending share buybacks on the back of the uncertainty.

Maersk said it expected underlying EBITDA (or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) of between $1 billion and $6 billion this year, compared to the $9.6 billion recorded in 2023.

Shares were trading 16.3% lower at 12:45 p.m. London time.

“The impact of this situation is causing new uncertainty for how this is going to play out from an earnings perspective throughout the year,” CEO Vincent Clerc told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“We have very little visibility as to whether this is a situation that will resolve in a matter of weeks or months, or whether this is something that is going to be with us for the full year,” he added.

In a statement, the company added that its board had decided to “immediately suspend the share buy-back programme, with a re-initiation to be reviewed once market conditions in Ocean [division] have settled.”

It comes as the company reported fourth-quarter profit below expectations Thursday, with EBITDA for the three-month period dropping to $839 million versus the $1.13 billion anticipated by analysts.

Global supply chains have faced serious disruption since late 2023 after major shipping companies began diverting journeys away from the Red Sea following a string of attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

The Iran-aligned group has targetted commercial vessels with drones and missiles in what they say is an act of solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing Gaza-Israel war.

The diversions around one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes have pushed up delivery times and costs, with the OECD warning Monday that it could increase inflation.

The Paris-based group said that the recent 100% rise in seaborne freight rates, if persistent, could see import price inflation across its 38 member countries rise by nearly 5 percentage points.

The rerouting has boosted freight rates for shipping companies, but Clerc said it was unlikely that those increases would feed through to profits.

“I don’t think from an earnings perspective, for the industry or for Maersk, when you look at it in its entirety that this is going to be something where we generate significant profit out of the situation,” he said.

“It is something where today the amount of cost we’re absorbing in order to keep the global supply chain going is still unknown.”