VanEck Predicts No BTC-ETH Flippening, Doubles Down on Post-Halving Scene

Investment management firm VanEck has unveiled its 2024 predictions, forecasting not only record-breaking highs for Bitcoin but also an anticipated peak in the NFT market, signaling a significant transformation in the industry.

The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs is expected to align with the prolonged anticipation of a U.S. recession, while the forthcoming halving event may not generate as much impact as previously anticipated.

New Peak for Bitcoin But No Flippening for Ethereum in 2024

Bitcoin may hit an all-time high in Q4 of 2024, according to VanEck’s prediction. With increased optimism for the dismantling of the SEC’s adversarial regulatory stance, Bitcoin could reach a new high on November 9th, exactly three years from its last peak in November 2021.

Ether is not expected to surpass Bitcoin in performance until post-halving and may outperform for the year, a complete, however, “flippening” is not anticipated. Despite posting a strong performance in 2024, Ether is projected to experience a decrease in market share as other smart contract platforms, like Solana, gain traction due to a clearer and less uncertain scalability roadmap.

Meanwhile, the introduction of the first-ever spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could potentially coincide with the US recession.

VanEck also said the 4th Bitcoin halving slated for April 2024 will occur with minimal drama. As the issuance of new coins is halved, unprofitable miners are likely to disengage, allowing those with cost-efficient power sources to gain a larger market share.

Despite this, the public markets are expected to experience minimal distress owing to the improved financial positions of listed miners, currently controlling approximately 25% of the global hash rate. Post-halving, it is expected that at least one publicly traded miner will experience a tenfold increase by the end of the year.

Turning Points for Binance and DEXes

Following Binance’s $4 billion settlement with US regulators, it is anticipated to relinquish its position as the top centralized exchange by volumes. Competitors such as OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget, backed by substantial funding, are poised to contend for the leading spot.

As Binance undergoes a rigorous three-year DOJ examination, VanEck predicted that Coinbase’s international futures market would thrive, surpassing a daily volume of $1 billion, a significant increase from approximately $200 million per day in November 2023.

The market share of spot cryptocurrency trading on Decentralized Exchanges (DEX) is expected to reach unprecedented levels, driven by the enhanced on-chain trading experience facilitated by high-throughput chains like Solana.

Simultaneously, the adoption of significantly improved wallets, which integrate “account abstraction” as a crucial feature enabling automated payments, will contribute to more users engaging in on-chain transactions and embracing self-custody solutions.